Two factors often determine stock prices in the long run: earnings and interest rates. Investors can't control the latter, but they can focus on a company's earnings results every quarter.

Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.

Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.

Now that we understand the basic idea, let's look at how the Expected Surprise Prediction works. The ESP is calculated by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the percentage difference between the two giving us the Zacks ESP figure.

Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Progressive?

The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Progressive (PGR Quick QuotePGR - Free Report) earns a #3 (Hold) 30 days from its next quarterly earnings release on July 15, 2026, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $3.79 a share.

By taking the percentage difference between the $3.79 Most Accurate Estimate and the $3.74 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Progressive has an Earnings ESP of +1.29%. Investors should also know that PGR is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

PGR is part of a big group of Finance stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS Quick QuoteBNS - Free Report) as well.

Bank of Nova Scotia is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on August 25, 2026. BNS' Most Accurate Estimate sits at $1.57 a share 71 days from its next earnings release.

Bank of Nova Scotia's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +1.62% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.54.

PGR and BNS' positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>